Rex's Rankings
Week 1 QB Rankings
35 players ranked · STD scoring · Updated
Week 1 baseline. No 2026 games have been played yet, so these rankings are built from current depth charts, last season's usage, and Vegas Week 1 totals — not from observed play. They are replaced by the full usage model once Week 1 is complete.
Justin Herbert of LAC is the number one QB in Week 1 STD scoring at home against ARI, in a game where his offense is implied for 28.5 points, projected for 19.2 points. 9 QBs sit in tiers 1 and 2 combined, and those are the ones you start without thinking.
Tier 1
Justin Herbert
LAC · QB
Carried a heavy workload last season, in one of Week 1's best scoring spots at 28.5 implied.
Tier 2
Joe Burrow
CIN · QB
Carried a heavy workload last season, in one of Week 1's best scoring spots at 27.5 implied.
Jared Goff
DET · QB
Held a featured role last season, in one of Week 1's best scoring spots at 28.2 implied.
Matthew Stafford
LA · QB
Carried a heavy workload last season, in one of Week 1's best scoring spots at 26.0 implied.
Trevor Lawrence
JAX · QB
Carried a heavy workload last season.
Kyler Murray
MIN · QB
New to MIN after ARI and steps in as the starter, carried a heavy workload last season.
Caleb Williams
CHI · QB
Carried a heavy workload last season.
Josh Allen
BUF · QB
Carried a heavy workload last season.
Jalen Hurts
PHI · QB
Held a featured role last season.
Tier 3
Sam Darnold
SEA · QB
Held a featured role last season.
Aaron Rodgers
PIT · QB
Carried a heavy workload last season.
Patrick Mahomes
KC · QB
Carried a heavy workload last season.
Jaxson Dart
NYG · QB
Held a featured role last season.
Baker Mayfield
TB · QB
Held a featured role last season.
Bo Nix
DEN · QB
Carried a heavy workload last season.
Bryce Young
CAR · QB
Held a featured role last season.
Brock Purdy
SF · QB
Held a featured role last season.
Tier 4
Tyler Shough
NO · QB
Carried a heavy workload last season.
Dak Prescott
DAL · QB
Held a featured role last season, in one of Week 1's best scoring spots at 25.5 implied.
Tier 5
Kirk Cousins
LV · QB
New to LV after ATL and steps in as the starter, held a featured role last season.
C.J. Stroud
HOU · QB
Held a featured role last season.
Lamar Jackson
BAL · QB
Had a steady role last season, in one of Week 1's best scoring spots at 26.0 implied.
Drake Maye
NE · QB
Held a featured role last season.
Jayden Daniels
WAS · QB
Held a featured role last season, in a low-scoring spot at 19.5 implied.
Tier 6
Jacoby Brissett
ARI · QB
Held a featured role last season, in a low-scoring spot at 18.0 implied.
Jordan Love
GB · QB
Had a steady role last season.
Daniel Jones
IND · QB
Had a steady role last season.
Cam Ward
TEN · QB
Had a steady role last season.
Tua Tagovailoa
ATL · QB
New to ATL after MIA and steps in as the starter, had a steady role last season, in a low-scoring spot at 19.5 implied.
Geno Smith
NYJ · QB
New to NYJ after LV and steps in as the starter, had a steady role last season, in a low-scoring spot at 18.5 implied.
Malik Willis
MIA · QB
New to MIA after GB and steps in as the starter, had a steady role last season, in a low-scoring spot at 18.5 implied.
Deshaun Watson
CLE · QB
Undrafted rookie, already listed as the starter, no NFL usage to go on yet, in a low-scoring spot at 16.5 implied.
Justin Fields
KC · QB
New to KC after NYJ, held a featured role last season.
Fernando Mendoza
LV · QB
First-round rookie, pick 1, second on the depth chart, no NFL usage to go on yet.
Shedeur Sanders
CLE · QB
Behind the starter on the depth chart, held a featured role last season, in a low-scoring spot at 16.5 implied.
Tier 1
- QB1—start
Justin Herbert
LAC · QB
Carried a heavy workload last season, in one of Week 1's best scoring spots at 28.5 implied.
LAC · vs ARI · 19.2 PROJ · 28.5 IMP · high confidence
Tier 2
- QB2—start
Joe Burrow
CIN · QB
Carried a heavy workload last season, in one of Week 1's best scoring spots at 27.5 implied.
CIN · vs TB · 18.7 PROJ · 27.5 IMP · high confidence
- QB3—start
Jared Goff
DET · QB
Held a featured role last season, in one of Week 1's best scoring spots at 28.2 implied.
DET · vs NO · 18.4 PROJ · 28.3 IMP · high confidence
- QB4—start
Matthew Stafford
LA · QB
Carried a heavy workload last season, in one of Week 1's best scoring spots at 26.0 implied.
LA · vs SF · 17.9 PROJ · 26.0 IMP · high confidence
- QB5—start
Trevor Lawrence
JAX · QB
Carried a heavy workload last season.
JAX · vs CLE · 17.6 PROJ · 24.0 IMP · high confidence
- QB6—start
Kyler Murray
MIN · QB
New to MIN after ARI and steps in as the starter, carried a heavy workload last season.
MIN · vs GB · 17.5 PROJ · 23.5 IMP · medium confidence
- QB7—start
Caleb Williams
CHI · QB
Carried a heavy workload last season.
CHI · @ CAR · 17.4 PROJ · 25.0 IMP · high confidence
- QB8—start
Josh Allen
BUF · QB
Carried a heavy workload last season.
BUF · @ HOU · 16.9 PROJ · 23.0 IMP · high confidence
- QB9—start
Jalen Hurts
PHI · QB
Held a featured role last season.
PHI · vs WAS · 16.6 PROJ · 25.0 IMP · high confidence
Tier 3
- QB10—start
Sam Darnold
SEA · QB
Held a featured role last season.
SEA · vs NE · 15.9 PROJ · 24.0 IMP · high confidence
- QB11—start
Aaron Rodgers
PIT · QB
Carried a heavy workload last season.
PIT · vs ATL · 15.8 PROJ · 23.0 IMP · high confidence
- QB12—start
Patrick Mahomes
KC · QB
Carried a heavy workload last season.
KC · vs DEN · 15.8 PROJ · 22.8 IMP · high confidence
- QB13—flex
Jaxson Dart
NYG · QB
Held a featured role last season.
NYG · vs DAL · 15.7 PROJ · 23.0 IMP · high confidence
- QB14—flex
Baker Mayfield
TB · QB
Held a featured role last season.
TB · @ CIN · 15.5 PROJ · 24.0 IMP · high confidence
- QB15—flex
Bo Nix
DEN · QB
Carried a heavy workload last season.
DEN · @ KC · 15.4 PROJ · 19.8 IMP · high confidence
- QB16—flex
Bryce Young
CAR · QB
Held a featured role last season.
CAR · vs CHI · 15.2 PROJ · 22.5 IMP · high confidence
- QB17—flex
Brock Purdy
SF · QB
Held a featured role last season.
SF · @ LA · 14.9 PROJ · 22.5 IMP · high confidence
Tier 4
- QB18—flex
Tyler Shough
NO · QB
Carried a heavy workload last season.
NO · @ DET · 14.8 PROJ · 21.3 IMP · high confidence
- QB19—sit
Dak Prescott
DAL · QB
Held a featured role last season, in one of Week 1's best scoring spots at 25.5 implied.
DAL · @ NYG · 14.7 PROJ · 25.5 IMP · medium confidence
Tier 5
- QB20—sit
Kirk Cousins
LV · QB
New to LV after ATL and steps in as the starter, held a featured role last season.
LV · vs MIA · 13.6 PROJ · 22.0 IMP · medium confidence
- QB21—sit
C.J. Stroud
HOU · QB
Held a featured role last season.
HOU · vs BUF · 13.3 PROJ · 21.5 IMP · high confidence
- QB22—sit
Lamar Jackson
BAL · QB
Had a steady role last season, in one of Week 1's best scoring spots at 26.0 implied.
BAL · @ IND · 12.9 PROJ · 26.0 IMP · medium confidence
- QB23—sit
Drake Maye
NE · QB
Held a featured role last season.
NE · @ SEA · 12.7 PROJ · 20.5 IMP · high confidence
- QB24—sit
Jayden Daniels
WAS · QB
Held a featured role last season, in a low-scoring spot at 19.5 implied.
WAS · @ PHI · 12.4 PROJ · 19.5 IMP · high confidence
Tier 6
- QB25—sit
Jacoby Brissett
ARI · QB
Held a featured role last season, in a low-scoring spot at 18.0 implied.
ARI · @ LAC · 12.2 PROJ · 18.0 IMP · high confidence
- QB26—sit
Jordan Love
GB · QB
Had a steady role last season.
GB · @ MIN · 12.2 PROJ · 22.0 IMP · medium confidence
- QB27—sit
Daniel Jones
IND · QB
Had a steady role last season.
IND · vs BAL · 11.3 PROJ · 22.5 IMP · medium confidence
- QB28—sit
Cam Ward
TEN · QB
Had a steady role last season.
TEN · vs NYJ · 10.2 PROJ · 20.0 IMP · medium confidence
- QB29—sit
Tua Tagovailoa
ATL · QB
New to ATL after MIA and steps in as the starter, had a steady role last season, in a low-scoring spot at 19.5 implied.
ATL · @ PIT · 9.9 PROJ · 19.5 IMP · medium confidence
- QB30—sit
Geno Smith
NYJ · QB
New to NYJ after LV and steps in as the starter, had a steady role last season, in a low-scoring spot at 18.5 implied.
NYJ · @ TEN · 9.7 PROJ · 18.5 IMP · medium confidence
- QB31—sit
Malik Willis
MIA · QB
New to MIA after GB and steps in as the starter, had a steady role last season, in a low-scoring spot at 18.5 implied.
MIA · @ LV · 8.8 PROJ · 18.5 IMP · low confidence
- QB32—sit
Deshaun Watson
CLE · QB
Undrafted rookie, already listed as the starter, no NFL usage to go on yet, in a low-scoring spot at 16.5 implied.
CLE · @ JAX · 4.0 PROJ · 16.5 IMP · low confidence
- QB33—sit
Justin Fields
KC · QB
New to KC after NYJ, held a featured role last season.
KC · vs DEN · 0.3 PROJ · 22.8 IMP · low confidence
- QB34—sit
Fernando Mendoza
LV · QB
First-round rookie, pick 1, second on the depth chart, no NFL usage to go on yet.
LV · vs MIA · 0.2 PROJ · 22.0 IMP · low confidence
- QB35—sit
Shedeur Sanders
CLE · QB
Behind the starter on the depth chart, held a featured role last season, in a low-scoring spot at 16.5 implied.
CLE · @ JAX · 0.2 PROJ · 16.5 IMP · low confidence
Underlying NFL data via nflverse. Betting lines from Lee Sharpe's games file. Rankings are FantasyWeek.us originals.
