Rex's Rankings · Results
Week 2 Fantasy Football Rankings Results — How Rex's Rankings Did
1503 players graded · PPR scoring · Boards published
Week 2 is scored: 1503 ranked players graded against what they actually did in PPR scoring, across 8 boards. The RB board tracked the results most closely (rank correlation 0.74, average miss 15.3 spots); the K board tracked them least closely (-0.01, 10.1 spots). Against the season points-per-game baseline, the board was closer on 6150% of contested players.
Board accuracy
| Board | Graded | Rank correlation | Mean rank error | Start-call hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 37 | 0.57 | 8.4of 37 | 40%10 start calls, top 12 |
| RB | 98 | 0.74 | 15.3of 98 | 64%22 start calls, top 24 |
| WR | 158 | 0.68 | 30.1of 158 | 45%31 start calls, top 36 |
| TE | 83 | 0.64 | 16.6of 83 | 36%11 start calls, top 12 |
| FLEX | 339 | 0.69 | 62.7of 339 | 50%320 contested pairs |
| Superflex | 376 | 0.72 | 66.0of 376 | 51%379 contested pairs |
| Defense | 30 | 0.16 | 9.8of 30 | 43%7 start calls, top 12 |
| Kicker | 30 | -0.01 | 10.1of 30 | 38%8 start calls, top 12 |
Start-call hit rates assume a 12-team league starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 DST and 1 K. Rank correlation compares the order the board set against the order players actually finished in. Mean rank error is the average number of spots each player finished away from his ranking; it scales with board size — compare it within a board across weeks, not between boards. Rank correlation is the scale-free measure. FLEX and superflex have no fixed lineup slot, so no start-call hit rate applies. Flex-call rate instead asks how often the board put the better player on top when two closely ranked players finished far apart.
Weekly kicker and defense ranking is close to noise, for everyone. Both boards are published because a lineup needs them, not because the ordering carries much signal. Where a baseline comparison exists for the week, it is shown on the accuracy page.
Versus the baselines
| Baseline | Board | Lineup points | Mean rank error | Rex closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| rex | DST | 5.01 slots | 9.8 | — |
| season points-per-game | DST | 5.01 slots | 10.5 | 5000%of 4 contested |
| last week's points | DST | 5.01 slots | 10.5 | 5000%of 4 contested |
| rex | K | 5.01 slots | 10.1 | — |
| season points-per-game | K | 12.01 slots | 12.1 | 6150%of 13 contested |
| last week's points | K | 12.01 slots | 12.1 | 6150%of 13 contested |
| rex | QB | 28.51 slots | 8.3 | — |
| season points-per-game | QB | 7.71 slots | 8.7 | 3640%of 11 contested |
| last week's points | QB | 7.71 slots | 8.7 | 3640%of 11 contested |
| rex | RB | 31.82 slots | 15.3 | — |
| season points-per-game | RB | 41.52 slots | 17.2 | 5750%of 40 contested |
| last week's points | RB | 41.52 slots | 17.2 | 5750%of 40 contested |
| rex | TE | 18.01 slots | 16.6 | — |
| season points-per-game | TE | 8.31 slots | 18.9 | 5580%of 52 contested |
| last week's points | TE | 8.31 slots | 18.9 | 5580%of 52 contested |
| rex | WR | 54.83 slots | 30.1 | — |
| season points-per-game | WR | 37.23 slots | 32.8 | 4840%of 126 contested |
| last week's points | WR | 37.23 slots | 32.8 | 4840%of 126 contested |
What we got right
Smallest rank error among players ranked inside the top 24 of their board.
| Player | Team | Ranked | Finished | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey14 touches · 52% of snaps | SF | RB3 | RB3 | 22.6 |
| JAX12 touches · 81% of snaps | JAX | FLEX24 | ROS-FLEX24 | 16.8 |
| WAS7 touches · 55% of snaps | WAS | QB16 | ROS-QB16 | 14.7 |
| TB21 touches · 78% of snaps | TB | RB13 | ROS-RB13 | 13.0 |
| NYG | NYG | RB24 | ROS-RB24 | 9.5 |
| TB6 touches · 89% of snaps | TB | TE14 | ROS-TE14 | 8.8 |
| Trey McBride10 touches · 88% of snaps | ARI | TE5 | TE5 | 18.1 |
| Tyler Warren8 touches · 89% of snaps | IND | TE8 | TE8 | 14.4 |
What we got wrong
Largest misses among players ranked inside the top 24 — the ones that cost points in a starting lineup.
| Player | Team | Ranked | Finished | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAListed questionable · No snaps recorded | LA | FLEX14 | ROS-FLEX260 | 0.0 |
| NYG | NYG | SF16 | ROS-SUPERFLEX229 | 0.8 |
| CHI3 touches · 86% of snaps | CHI | FLEX22 | ROS-FLEX196 | 1.3 |
| NE8 touches · 36% of snaps | NE | SF13 | ROS-SUPERFLEX176 | 3.6 |
| NE8 touches · 36% of snaps | NE | FLEX8 | ROS-FLEX148 | 3.6 |
| Puka NacuaListed questionable · No snaps recorded | LA | WR2 | WR127 | 0.0 |
| NE2 touches · 71% of snaps | NE | FLEX23 | ROS-FLEX139 | 3.8 |
| HOU8 touches · 52% of snaps | HOU | FLEX15 | ROS-FLEX130 | 4.4 |
Surprises
Ranked low and delivered anyway — an error in the other direction, leaving points on the bench.
| Player | Team | Ranked | Finished | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Shrader | IND | K24 | K4 | 14.0 |
| IND | IND | K24 | ROS-K4 | 14.0 |
| SEA11 touches · 67% of snaps | SEA | SF20 | ROS-SUPERFLEX1 | 42.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | QB22 | QB4 | 27.0 |
| IND28 touches · 94% of snaps | IND | SF23 | ROS-SUPERFLEX5 | 29.2 |
| DAL9 touches · 75% of snaps | DAL | WR21 | ROS-WR3 | 35.3 |
| New England Defense | NE | DST20 | DST3 | 13.0 |
| Los Angeles Rams Defense | LA | DST22 | DST5 | 11.0 |
Every graded Week 2 board
Underlying NFL data via nflverse. Betting lines from Lee Sharpe's games file. Rankings are FantasyWeek.us originals.