Week 8 Fantasy Football Rankings Results — How Rex's Rankings Did

42 players graded · PPR scoring · Boards published

Week 8 is scored: 42 ranked players graded against what they actually did in PPR scoring, across 8 boards. The RB board tracked the results most closely (rank correlation 0.97, average miss 58.5 spots); the TE board tracked them least closely (0.87, 52.0 spots). Across QB, RB, WR and TE, Rex's board was closer than the season points per game baseline on 0.0% of 34 contested players.

Board accuracy

BoardGradedRank correlationMean rank errorPoints errorStart-call hit rate
QB40.9622.5of 42.22100% vs 300% by chance1 start call, top 12
RB100.9758.5of 102.98100% vs 240% by chance2 start calls, top 24
WR160.90109.6of 161.25100% vs 225% by chance3 start calls, top 36
TE80.8752.0of 82.04100% vs 150% by chance1 start call, top 12
FLEX340.92219.8of 341.95100% vs 50% by chance1 contested pair
Superflex380.93245.0of 381.98—
Defense2—13.0of 22.09100% vs 600% by chance1 start call, top 12
Kicker2—16.0of 22.80—

Start-call hit rates assume a 12-team league starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 DST and 1 K. Rank correlation compares the order the board set against the order players actually finished in. Mean rank error is the average number of spots each player finished away from his ranking; it scales with board size — compare it within a board across weeks, not between boards. Rank correlation is the scale-free measure. FLEX and superflex have no fixed lineup slot, so no start-call hit rate applies. Flex-call rate instead asks how often the board put the better player on top when two closely ranked players finished far apart. Chance is what picking that many names at random would hit. A rate close to chance means the board showed no edge at that position this week, not that it failed.

Against the obvious alternatives

Chance is a low bar. The real question is whether this beats what you would do yourself — so every week, the same players are also ranked by season points per game and by last week's points, and scored the same way.

PositionLineup points a weekRank errorCloser on disagreementsWeeks scored
QB+11.2 a week21.5 vs 10.4 by season average22.50.5 by season average0.0%across 3 players ranked 10+ places apart1
vs last week's points0.0 a week21.5 vs 21.5 by last week's points22.50.0 by last week's points0.0%across 3 players ranked 10+ places apart1
RB0.0 a week48.1 vs 48.1 by season average58.52.2 by season average0.0%across 9 players ranked 10+ places apart1
vs last week's points0.0 a week48.1 vs 48.1 by last week's points58.51.6 by last week's points0.0%across 9 players ranked 10+ places apart1
WR0.0 a week50.0 vs 50.0 by season average109.61.8 by season average0.0%across 15 players ranked 10+ places apart1
vs last week's points+8.5 a week50.0 vs 41.5 by last week's points109.61.8 by last week's points0.0%across 15 players ranked 10+ places apart1
TE0.0 a week17.3 vs 17.3 by season average52.00.8 by season average0.0%across 7 players ranked 10+ places apart1
vs last week's points0.0 a week17.3 vs 17.3 by last week's points52.00.8 by last week's points0.0%across 7 players ranked 10+ places apart1
Kickers and defenses — close to noise for every method
DST0.0 a week8.0 vs 8.0 by season average13.00.0 by season average0.0%across 1 players ranked 10+ places apart1
vs last week's points0.0 a week8.0 vs 8.0 by last week's points13.00.0 by last week's points0.0%across 1 players ranked 10+ places apart1
K0.0 a week9.0 vs 9.0 by season average16.00.0 by season average0.0%across 2 players ranked 10+ places apart1
vs last week's points+6.0 a week9.0 vs 3.0 by last week's points16.01.0 by last week's points0.0%across 2 players ranked 10+ places apart1

Lineup points are what a manager would have scored starting the top of each board — 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 DST, 1 K. Closer on disagreements counts only players where the two methods differ by ten or more places; agreement proves nothing about either.

Smallest rank error among players ranked inside the top 24 of their board.

PlayerTeamRankedFinishedPoints
Tucker KraftGBTE3TE117.3
Josh JacobsGBRB7RB223.2
Matthew GoldenListed questionableGBWR6WR120.9
Jordan LoveGBQB7QB121.5
Green Bay DefenseGBDST8DST18.0
Bryce YoungCARQB14QB210.4
Ryan FitzgeraldCARK16K19.0
Christian WatsonGBWR17WR217.3

Surprises

Ranked low and delivered anyway — an error in the other direction, leaving points on the bench.

PlayerTeamRankedFinishedPoints
Carolina DefenseCARDST21DST22.0
Tetairoa McMillanCARWR21WR311.8
Trey SmackGBK19K23.0
Chuba HubbardCARRB17RB124.9
Ryan FitzgeraldCARK16K19.0
Christian WatsonGBWR17WR217.3
Bryce YoungCARQB14QB210.4
Green Bay DefenseGBDST8DST18.0

Every graded Week 8 board

Underlying NFL data via nflverse. Betting lines from Lee Sharpe's games file. Rankings are FantasyWeek.us originals.