Rex's Rankings · Results
Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings Results — How Rex's Rankings Did
528 players graded · PPR scoring · Boards published
Week 6 is scored: 528 ranked players graded against what they actually did in PPR scoring, across 8 boards. The QB board tracked the results most closely (rank correlation 0.88, average miss 5.6 spots); the K board tracked them least closely (-0.06, 9.2 spots). Across QB, RB, WR and TE, Rex's board was closer than the season points per game baseline on 54.0% of 276 contested players.
Board accuracy
| Board | Graded | Rank correlation | Mean rank error | Points error | Start-call hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 52 | 0.88 | 5.6of 52 | 3.04 | 73% vs 23% by chance11 start calls, top 12 |
| RB | 120 | 0.83 | 15.3of 120 | 2.79 | 65% vs 20% by chance23 start calls, top 24 |
| WR | 194 | 0.81 | 25.6of 194 | 2.77 | 67% vs 19% by chance33 start calls, top 36 |
| TE | 106 | 0.77 | 16.9of 106 | 3.13 | 27% vs 11% by chance11 start calls, top 12 |
| FLEX | 420 | 0.81 | 55.4of 420 | 2.87 | 52% vs 50% by chance363 contested pairs |
| Superflex | 472 | 0.83 | 58.4of 472 | 2.89 | 53% vs 50% by chance417 contested pairs |
| Defense | 28 | 0.05 | 8.6of 28 | 3.37 | 50% vs 43% by chance8 start calls, top 12 |
| Kicker | 28 | -0.06 | 9.2of 28 | 4.41 | 44% vs 43% by chance9 start calls, top 12 |
Start-call hit rates assume a 12-team league starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 DST and 1 K. Rank correlation compares the order the board set against the order players actually finished in. Mean rank error is the average number of spots each player finished away from his ranking; it scales with board size — compare it within a board across weeks, not between boards. Rank correlation is the scale-free measure. FLEX and superflex have no fixed lineup slot, so no start-call hit rate applies. Flex-call rate instead asks how often the board put the better player on top when two closely ranked players finished far apart. Chance is what picking that many names at random would hit. A rate close to chance means the board showed no edge at that position this week, not that it failed.
Weekly kicker and defense ranking is close to noise, for everyone. Both boards are published because a lineup needs them, not because the ordering carries much signal. Where a baseline comparison exists for the week, it is shown on the accuracy page.
Against the obvious alternatives
Chance is a low bar. The real question is whether this beats what you would do yourself — so every week, the same players are also ranked by season points per game and by last week's points, and scored the same way.
| Position | Lineup points a week | Rank error | Closer on disagreements | Weeks scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | +5.5 a week23.8 vs 18.3 by season average | 5.69.5 by season average | 86.7%across 15 players ranked 10+ places apart | 1 |
| vs last week's points | 0.0 a week23.8 vs 23.8 by last week's points | 5.68.9 by last week's points | 82.6%across 23 players ranked 10+ places apart | 1 |
| RB | −4.4 a week30.8 vs 35.2 by season average | 15.322.1 by season average | 59.7%across 67 players ranked 10+ places apart | 1 |
| vs last week's points | +14.1 a week30.8 vs 16.7 by last week's points | 15.321.7 by last week's points | 66.2%across 65 players ranked 10+ places apart | 1 |
| WR | −5.7 a week49.7 vs 55.4 by season average | 25.633.0 by season average | 50.7%across 142 players ranked 10+ places apart | 1 |
| vs last week's points | +15.9 a week49.7 vs 33.8 by last week's points | 25.642.2 by last week's points | 72.6%across 135 players ranked 10+ places apart | 1 |
| TE | 0.0 a week11.0 vs 11.0 by season average | 16.918.5 by season average | 46.2%across 52 players ranked 10+ places apart | 1 |
| vs last week's points | −12.9 a week11.0 vs 23.9 by last week's points | 16.920.2 by last week's points | 55.7%across 70 players ranked 10+ places apart | 1 |
| Kickers and defenses — close to noise for every method | ||||
| DST | 0.0 a week10.0 vs 10.0 by season average | 8.68.9 by season average | 100.0%across 1 players ranked 10+ places apart | 1 |
| vs last week's points | +1.0 a week10.0 vs 9.0 by last week's points | 8.68.1 by last week's points | 60.0%across 5 players ranked 10+ places apart | 1 |
| K | 0.0 a week9.0 vs 9.0 by season average | 9.29.0 by season average | 50.0%across 2 players ranked 10+ places apart | 1 |
| vs last week's points | +1.0 a week9.0 vs 8.0 by last week's points | 9.210.6 by last week's points | 63.6%across 11 players ranked 10+ places apart | 1 |
Lineup points are what a manager would have scored starting the top of each board — 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 DST, 1 K. Closer on disagreements counts only players where the two methods differ by ten or more places; agreement proves nothing about either.
What we got right
Smallest rank error among players ranked inside the top 24 of their board.
| Player | Team | Ranked | Finished | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Folk | ATL | K11 | K11 | 11.0 |
| Cam Little | JAX | K13 | K13 | 9.0 |
| Jordan Love4 touches · 100% of snaps | GB | QB7 | QB7 | 20.2 |
| Ashton Jeanty16 touches · 58% of snaps | LV | RB9 | RB9 | 15.8 |
| Woody Marks18 touches · 78% of snaps | HOU | RB21 | RB21 | 10.1 |
| Keenan Allen11 touches · 71% of snaps | IND | WR17 | WR17 | 16.2 |
| Indianapolis Defense | IND | DST21 | DST22 | 2.0 |
| Cairo Santos | CHI | K14 | K15 | 9.0 |
What we got wrong
Largest misses among players ranked inside the top 24 — the ones that cost points in a starting lineup.
| Player | Team | Ranked | Finished | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam SkatteboNo snaps recorded | NYG | RB17 | RB73 | 0.0 |
| Terry McLaurin1 touch · 10% of snaps | WAS | WR20 | WR75 | 3.7 |
| Quinshon JudkinsListed questionable · No snaps recorded | CLE | RB20 | RB74 | 0.0 |
| Tyler WarrenListed questionable · No snaps recorded | IND | TE6 | TE57 | 0.0 |
| Juwan Johnson2 touches · 58% of snaps | NO | TE9 | TE58 | 0.0 |
| Davante Adams4 touches · 74% of snaps | LA | WR4 | WR52 | 6.9 |
| Rome Odunze4 touches · 96% of snaps | CHI | WR6 | WR53 | 6.9 |
| Darren Waller2 touches · 46% of snaps | CAR | TE14 | TE59 | 0.0 |
Surprises
Ranked low and delivered anyway — an error in the other direction, leaving points on the bench.
| Player | Team | Ranked | Finished | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Defense | TEN | DST23 | DST2 | 12.0 |
| Chad Ryland | ARI | K21 | K1 | 19.0 |
| Kyle Pitts7 touches · 78% of snaps | ATL | TE22 | TE2 | 23.0 |
| Jason Sanders | NYJ | K24 | K6 | 15.0 |
| Kansas City Defense | KC | DST18 | DST1 | 15.0 |
| Chris Boswell | PIT | K18 | K2 | 18.0 |
| Trevor Lawrence3 touches · 100% of snaps | JAX | QB17 | QB1 | 27.3 |
| Michael Penix Jr.1 touch · 100% of snaps | ATL | QB20 | QB4 | 23.1 |
Every graded Week 6 board
Underlying NFL data via nflverse. Betting lines from Lee Sharpe's games file. Rankings are FantasyWeek.us originals.